Deepening Canada-U.S. trade tensions and mounting economic and unemployment uncertainty triggered a nation-wide slowdown in residential sales activity through the first four months of 2025, as national consumer confidence in current economic conditions, personal financial positions and the short-term employment outlook fell to record lows. Despite easing monetary policy and steadying mortgage rates following two consecutive Bank of Canada decisions to hold its overnight lending rate at 2.75%, consumer apprehension and persistently high benchmark housing prices in excess of $1 million weighed on the Toronto and Vancouver markets through much of the first half of the year, discouraging buyers from pursuing upward housing mobility and slowing market activity as a result.  In comparison, relatively attainable benchmark housing prices in Montreal (CMA) and Calgary, reported at $580,100 and $583,000 in May 2025 by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), played a role in supporting upward mobility, sales activity and consumer confidence overall.

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Montreal

Montreal’s luxury housing market defied national headwinds in the first half of 2025, posting consistent sales gains across all property types in the $1 million-plus segment. As mortgage lending rates eased, relatively attainable housing prices enabled buyers to progress into higher-end markets, supporting market momentum and confidence. In the first half of 2025, residential sales above $1 million climbed 26% year-over-year while transactions over $4 million increased 22%, reinforcing seller’s market conditions and robust price gains.

Toronto

Residential sales in Canada’s largest luxury real estate market declined in the first half of 2025 as uncertainty slowed activity across much of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). However, the region’s ultra-luxury real estate market defied headwinds, while sales activity in several of Toronto most prestigious neighbourhoods remained resilient.  While residential sales over $1 million and luxury sales above $4 million fell 23% and 28% year-over-year respectively in the GTA, the $10 million–plus segment gained ground with twelve MLS-recorded sales over $10 million, up 200% from four properties sold during the same period last year. According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, off-market sales transactions in this elite tier saw notable gains.

Calgary

Despite vulnerabilities in Alberta’s resource sector due to fluctuating oil prices, strong gains in employment and an increase of 1.4% in GDP are projected for the province in 2025, according to the Conference Board of Canada.  Furthermore, the province of Alberta saw a net, year-over-year gain of 28,496 new residents in the first quarter of 2025 alone, according to Statistics Canada. These advantages helped buffer Calgary’s luxury real estate market from other economic pressures, however, the city receded from the heated seller’s market conditions of 2024. Overall, in the first half of 2025, residential sales over $1 million were up 3% year-over-year as the market rebalanced. Ten properties sold over $4 million, compared to seven sold in the first half of 2024, a 43% improvement.  

Vancouver

In Vancouver, residential sales over $4 million fell 51% year-over-year in the first half of 2025, with two transactions above $10 million recorded on MLS compared to seven in the same period in 2024. This represented the steepest annual decline among Canada’s major metropolitan real estate markets where sales in the $4 million-plus segment fell, while others saw gains. Sales of properties priced above $1 million also fell 26% compared to the same period last year.

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*Disclaimer

The information contained in this report references market data from MLS® boards across Canada. Sotheby’s International Realty Canada cautions that MLS market data can be useful in establishing trends over time but does not indicate actual prices in widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differentials within local markets. This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information and analysis presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada or Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates for any loss or damage resulting from any use of, reliance on, or reference to the contents of this document.