Canada’s luxury real estate market navigated a tumultuous landscape in 2024, shaped by competing forces. Political and economic uncertainty, housing taxes, sweeping regulatory overhauls, and rising inventory levels weighed on sales activity. However, more decisive factors including pent-up demand, unprecedented population growth and declining interest rates emerged as dominant market drivers and bolstered market stability. These dynamics will continue to offset headwinds and lay the foundation for a more active top-tier housing market in 2025.

According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada Top-Tier Real Estate: 2024 State of Luxury Annual Report, unprecedented population growth, including the influx of 471,771 new permanent residents to Canada in 2023 and a targeted 485,000 in 2024, was the leading transformative influence on conventional and luxury market activity in 2024 as new residents intensified demand for housing across major cities.  The Bank of Canada’s monetary policy easing, initiated in June, also gradually but formatively influenced luxury market performance. Even though affluent real estate buyers and sellers are typically insulated from the effects of mortgage rate changes, the swift series of consecutive interest rate cuts improved consumer confidence and enabled upward mobility from conventional markets into the entry-level top-tier segment. Home sales activity recorded over Canada’s Multiple Listings Service (MLS) systems climbed an unexpected 7.7% month-over-month basis in October 2024, its highest level since April 2022 followed by another 2.8% month-over-month in November. According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, this broad-based increase in home sales activity in the final quarter of 2024 also culminated in greater luxury sales activity. The central bank’s policy rate cut of 50 basis points to 3.25% in December 2024 will also continue to facilitate new activity in 2025.

“Canada’s conventional and luxury real estate market demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2024 and closed the final quarter of the year with a pick-up in sales activity that foreshadows further improvement in the months ahead. Several of the country’s largest markets emerged from two years of uncertainty to deliver sustained and consistent gains in 2024, with demand rechanneled into the single family home segment. Toronto and Montreal’s broad-based real estate market revitalization reflects the changes in market dynamics that are needed to stimulate housing mobility and sales nationwide: sellers are engaging in realistic pricing which enables constructive negotiations, while falling interest rates are gradually enabling upward mobility from the conventional into the top-tier and luxury markets,” said Don Kottick, President and CEO of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. “Calgary continues to lead the country with expansion in top-tier housing sales, putting unprecedented pressure on housing supply and prices. In contrast, a generally weaker picture for Vancouver’s local economy, as well as the ongoing standoff between sellers clinging to peak-era valuations and buyers demanding prices that reflect today’s reality, are placing a drag on Vancouver’s market.” 

According to Don Kottick, the luxury condominium market has emerged as one of Canada’s top long-term real estate investment opportunities, particularly in the cities of Toronto and Vancouver, where supply outweighs demand, and prices have declined from previous peaks.   The current environment, characterized by lower prices, weak competition and easing interest rates, is now advantageous for invest-minded buyers. A slowdown in new condominium construction signals potential supply constraints in the mid- to long-term, while inevitable population growth enhances the market’s potential for investors.

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Toronto

Canada’s largest metropolitan luxury real estate market, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), experienced a resurgence in 2024, setting the tone for broader market trends nationwide. Across the GTA (Durham, Halton, Peel, Toronto and York), luxury sales activity saw steady and robust gains through the course of the year, with a notable surge in activity towards the end of 2024. Residential real estate sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached and single family homes) climbed 21% year-over-year overall, supported by surging population and housing demand, resilient consumer confidence and the adaptation of seller expectations to rebalanced market conditions.  Ultra-luxury sales over $10 million were up 20% on MLS Multiple Listing Service (MLS) in 2024, as Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts reported a concurrent resurgence in private, off-market sales.  Single family homes sales continued to dominate the luxury market as affluent consumer preferences trended sharply in their favour, with $4 million-plus single family homes up 22% year-over-year to comprise 91% of all residential sales above $4 million. Attached home sales over $4 million were stable at 2023 levels, while $4 million-plus condominium sales were up 12% year-over-year. Overall, residential sales over $1 million were up a marginal 1% year-over-year in 2024.

Calgary

Calgary led Canada’s largest metropolitan areas with the pace of its expansion of luxury sales activity in 2024, as the city’s population boom introduced unprecedented pressure on housing demand and prices. The city outstripped Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal in annual percentage gains in residential real estate sales over $1 million and $4 million, at rates of 42% and 100% respectively. $1 million-plus single family and attached homes sales increased 34% and 130% respectively, while condominium sales over $1 million saw an annual gain of 31%.

Montreal

Luxury sales activity in Montreal reflected greater resilience and notable new activity in 2024 compared to 2023. Residential sales over $4 million experienced a 16% year-over-year improvement, while sales over $1 million increased 38%. The city saw healthy gains across every top-tier housing type, with single family and attached home sales over $1 million up 38% and 27% year-over-year respectively. $1 million-plus condominium sales increased by 53% from 2023 levels.

Vancouver

Vancouver’s luxury market performance lagged in 2024, as consumers’ confidence and willingness-to-transact remained soft. Even as property listings inventory accumulated and conditions shifted in favour of homebuyers, the price expectations of prospective sellers were often misaligned with market realities. This led to stalemates in individual negotiations and stasis across the broader market. Residential sales transactions over $4 million closed the year 11% below 2024 levels, while sales over $10 million were down 29% year-over-year. Overall residential sales over $1 million were up a modest 4% from 2024 levels. Although luxury consumer demand continued to trend in favour of single family homes, sales over $4 million were down 15% year-over-year to comprise 89% of residential sales above this price point in 2024, while $4 million-plus attached home were up by one unit year-over-year to three homes sold. The city’s top-tier condominium market endured buyers’ market conditions in 2024, however, transactions over $4 million were up 26% compared to 2023 levels. Overall, residential real estate sales over $1 million closed the year at levels that were 4% higher than 2023 levels.

*Disclaimer
The information contained in this report references market data from MLS boards across Canada. Sotheby’s International Realty Canada cautions that MLS market data can be useful in establishing trends over time but does not indicate actual prices in widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differentials within local markets. This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information and analysis presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada or Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates for any loss or damage resulting from any use of, reliance on, or reference to the contents of this document.