Unprecedented population gains are dramatically reshaping Canada’s conventional and luxury real estate market, according to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s Top-Tier Real Estate: 2024 Mid-Year State of Luxury Report. According to the most recent Statistics Canada data, all major Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) saw their fastest growth since 2001–2002 in the year ending July 1, 2023. Calgary led with a 5.9% growth rate, followed by Edmonton and Vancouver at 4.1%, Toronto at 3.3%, and Montreal at 2.9%.¹ However, according to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts, interprovincial and interregional migration trends are also leading indicators for local economic confidence and consumer sentiment, as well as conventional and luxury housing market performance. Notably, the Vancouver CMA experienced its largest net loss to interprovincial migration in over 20 years (-4,795 people), while all Ontario CMAs, including Toronto, saw net losses in interprovincial migration.² Conversely, Alberta surpassed British Columbia in net interprovincial migration gains, with Calgary leading the CMAs (+26,662). Toronto (-93,024), Montreal (-20,624), and Vancouver (-18,399) continued to see significant net losses to regional migration.³ These trends were reflected in the performance of the luxury market in the first half of 2024.

“While record-setting population gains in Canada’s largest metropolitan areas continue to be powerful influences on the local real estate market, interprovincial and interregional migration patterns are now leading signals for local economic sentiment, core housing demand, and conventional and luxury real estate market performance overall,” says Don Kottick, President and CEO, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. “The migration of residents and their talent and financial capital away from cities like Toronto and Vancouver to communities in surrounding regions or provinces such as Alberta foreshadow trends in sales activity, housing prices and real estate market performance. This applies to the cities they are leaving and the markets they are moving to, and it applies across the conventional and luxury markets.”

According to Kottick, sales activity across the vast majority of Canada’s major metropolitan luxury real estate markets has remained steady but subdued in recent months because still-elevated prices and interest rates continue to weigh on consumer decision-making, and an accumulation of top-tier listings supply empowers prospective homebuyers to extend decision-making and delay transactions. However, Alberta’s major metropolitan housing markets continue to reflect exceptional performance as record-setting population gains drove conventional and luxury sales to new highs in the first half of 2024.
 

 

 

Market Highlights

Toronto
Buoyed by Canada’s most significant net population gain of the country’s Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs), the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) luxury real estate market maintained balanced conditions in the first half of 2024, despite improved listings inventory, a delayed start to the spring real estate season and a deepening stalemate between prospective buyers and sellers on price. Although homebuyers prolonged property searches given favourable buying conditions, $4 million-plus residential sales saw a modest 8% annual gain in the GTA, and a 4% uptick in the City of Toronto in the first half of the year. $10 million-plus sales on Multiple Listings Service (MLS®) fell 57% and 40% across the GTA and in the City of Toronto, respectively.

Vancouver
Despite increased inventory and activity early in the year, Vancouver’s luxury market saw subdued consumer sentiment and sales in the spring. In the first half of 2024, sales of luxury homes over $4 million dropped 16% year-over-year, while sales of ultra-luxury properties over $10 million were down 50%. The median price per square foot for luxury properties priced between $4 million–$10 million fell to $1,179 in May 2024, the lowest level in three years.¹

Montréal
Montreal’s luxury market gained inventory and sales traction in the first half of the year. Overall residential sales over $4 million were up 29% year-over-year and $1 million-plus sales increased by 25%.

Calgary
Record immigration and inter-provincial migration shaped sellers’ market conditions in Calgary, driving conventional and luxury housing sales to new highs in the first half of 2024. As population growth exerted unprecedented pressure on the city’s housing supply, sales of high-end homes exceeding $1 million surged by 46% year-over-year in the first half of 2024. Meanwhile, transactions for properties over $4 million experienced annual gains of 75%, surpassing the percentage increases observed in other major metropolitan markets.

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*Disclaimer
The information contained in this report references market data from MLS boards across Canada. Sotheby’s International Realty Canada cautions that MLS market data can be useful in establishing trends over time but does not indicate actual prices in widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differentials within local markets. This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information and analysis presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada or Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates for any loss or damage resulting from any use of, reliance on, or reference to the contents of this document.

1 Statistics Canada, May 2024
2 Statistics Canada, May 2024
3 Statistics Canada, May 2024