The fourth annual 2024 Luxury Outlook report is an in-depth exploration of the high-end residential markets across the globe. Following several years of residential real estate frenzy, the report reveals that buyers have begun to acclimate to a new normal of higher interest rates, with high-end home seekers expanding their searches to more parts of the world. It also explores the trends shaping real estate investment decisions in the year ahead, from the intergenerational transfer of wealth to pinpointing parts of the world where tax incentives are increasingly enticing. 

After the past few years’ frenzied market, we’re hitting more of a buyer-seller equilibrium, with inventory levels moving up ever so slightly, buyers getting used to a new normal of interest rates, prices generally holding steady, and high-end home seekers expanding their reaches to more parts of the globe.

There are lots of changes happening, and we explore them in depth–everything from the newest tech tools currently disrupting the real estate market, from artificial intelligence to smart-home technology, to pinpointing the parts of the world where tax incentives are increasingly enticing wealthy citizens.

 

We look at emerging markets such as Saudi Arabia and Mexico City, as well as the tried-and-true high-net-worth enclaves such as New York and Miami. We explore the strength of these markets, the effects of fluctuating currencies there, and much more.

We also look at the growing importance of sustainability and climate resilience to home builders and buyers, how hybrid work has shifted the world’s real estate needs, and how provenance can help homes sell.

This is a difficult time when it comes to geopolitical challenges, with several conflicts raging around the world at once. That makes it difficult to predict what the future will bring, and whether an intensification of conflict could affect financial markets.

For now, there continues to be economic uncertainty into 2024, despite some sporadic positive news. In the U.S., for one, economic growth accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the Commerce Department.

While many experts are torn about the effects the conflicts are likely to have from a financial perspective, many market watchers predict an overall positive 2024 for the real estate market. As Sotheby’s International Realty CEO Philip A.White Jr. points out in an interview on page 6, Freddie Mac is forecasting prices rising by 0.8% between August 2023 and August 2024, followed by another 0.9% gain in the following 12 months, pointing to “tremendous” demand for houses relative to supply, continuing “to keep upward pressure on prices.”

For now, at least, most of the worries about the real estate market stalling due to rising interest rates haven’t come to fruition, with demand strong, as people move both because they’re going through major life events–such as new children and new jobs–or simply because they want to upgrade their homes and, with it, their lifestyle.

Speaking of the lifestyle factor, as always, we explore the high-end purchases people are making outside the real estate realm, including art, collectibles, and more. We know that luxury buyers and sellers want to spend wisely, and staying well-informed is just the way to do it.

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This article was originally published on Sotheby’s International Realty’s Extraordinary Blog, and has been adapted for Sotheby’s International Realty Canada.